The following is an Administrative Decision following the Post 2022 Logistix Stats Review.
Decision: In the calculation of the Extractor score, the Clearance multiplier will be reduced from 3 to 2.5.
i.e the Extractor score calculation will be Extractor = Disposals x 0.5 + Clearances x 2.5
(Please note, while this is an Administrative Decision, the RGC were also consulted who notably hold 5 of the top 6 Extractors amongst them and still cited no major issues with this plan.)
Rationale Summary:
The Extractor was not designed to be the league’s most dominant position. It was only brought in as a specialised midfielder so we could utilise the clearance stat.
The Ute Reform and Tackling Reform resulted in large drops in their average Elite Scores which, as an unintended consequence, made the Extractor the most dominant position. The Extractor has been too dominant for years and consequently this change has been coming for years but there were several other reforms required that took precedence and Logistix wanted to give it more time to see if the trends reversed by themselves but they haven’t. In fact they are are worsening – The Extractor is both the highest averaging position but also has relatively high variance in its scoring making the difference between having a top Extractor and a decent Extractor too big, their value relative to other positions too large, and consequently, too great an impact on the outcome of a game.
This change brings the Extractor back into the pack with all the other high value positions (Ute, T, Ma, Mi) and the Ute returns as the highest scoring position consistent with HFFL design history.
Full Rationale
The history of HFFL stats design was that Ute, the great all rounder, was the most valuable position by a small margin. This was ok especially given many of the top Utes are routinely played in other positions, so the actual number of true Utes near the top was much smaller and generally at lower averages than the raw stats suggested, after removing those players playing in other positions.
The Ute Reform and Tackling Reform resulted in large drops in their average Elite Scores which made the Extractor the most dominant position. Below displays the change in the average Elite scores over the past 6 years for the high value positions:
– Ute decreased by 9 points
– Tackler decreased by 5 points
– Extractor increased by 1 point
– Marker and Mid stayed about the same
Additionally HFFL stats design is that while it is acceptable for lower scoring positions, like the forwards and halfback, can have high variance (standard deviation) in their scores (measured best by the Coefficient of Variation – CV – explained below), the highest scoring positions need to have lower variance in their scores. Unfortunately the Extractor now has both the highest Elite scores and high variance.
The Extractor has been too dominant for years and consequently this change has been coming for years but there were several other reforms required that took precedence and Logistix wanted to give it more time to see if the trends reversed by themselves but they haven’t. In fact they are are worsening – with the Extractor being both the highest averaging position but also having relatively high variance in its scoring, this makes the difference between having a top Extractor and a decent Extractor too big, their value relative to other positions too large and consequently too great an impact on the outcome of a game.
Stats to Review
- This sheet shows the End of Season Stats with this modification made. You can see it brings top Extractors from a huge score of 40 and 36 down to 36 and 32, back closer to the levels of top players seen in other high scoring positions such as Ute, T, Ma, Mi.
- However the most useful sheet to review is this sheet showing the Historic Elite Stats updated to 2022 with this change
- See the sheet Summary of Historic Elite Stats
- I’ve introduced a new useful statistic known as the Coefficient of Variation (CV). It demonstrates how much variance there is in the position relative to the average scores of the position (i.e the Standard Deviation divided by Average).
- You’ll see that high CV positions such as F and Hb (around the 10% mark) are low averaging positions By contrast the ute and mid is a low (CV) position around 5% but average reasonably highly.
- The Extractor has been sitting around the 7% mark lifting to 9% this year. Even at 7% this is too high for a position with such a high elite average, but at 9% it is extreme.
- By adjusting the Clearance multiplier to 2.5, the CV stays high but the impact of this is less in terms of dominance because the elite averages are now brought back down to the pack of the other high scoring positions.
So what is required now is not Extractor Reform as such, just a small Extractor Adjustment: reducing the Clearance multiplier from 3 to 2.5. This change brings the Extractor back into the pack with all the other high value positions (Ute, T, Ma, Mi) and the Ute returns as the highest scoring position consistent with HFFL design history.
